"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. Without a doubt Team A and IF it wins you then place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and if it wins you bet double on the second team. With a true "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet the same amount on the second team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you intend to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait until the first game has ended. If the first game wins, he will put an equal amount on the next game though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the second bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the second game have not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the next game. Because of this, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only way to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books won't allow you to complete the next game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. No matter whether the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 when you lose on the initial team. If the initial team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split however the loser may be the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This type of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you intend to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the identical to if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also function as same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing $110 once the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 once the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet offers you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses with no decrease in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win a lot more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting using one shouldn't be made dependent on whether or not you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the point that he could be not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Understand that next time someone tells you that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A good winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a confident expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of you have no other choice is if you're the very best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux which means you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your head up high, put a smile on your own face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a good substitute for the parlay in case you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the second bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the game will review the comparatively low total, and if the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, if you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the fact that they're co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. 55g bet is simply not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out from the two. Each one of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we are in need of is really a 72% probability that whenever, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. That a BC cover can lead to an over 72% of the time is not an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
Compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."